August 21, 2024

Gov. Tim Walz will have the national spotlight Wednesday evening at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where he’ll have the opportunity to introduce himself to the general public. As he prepares to define himself to the national electorate, new Blueprint polling shows that voters say many of the vice presidential nominee’s accomplishments—such as giving free lunch to public school students, cutting taxes on the middle class, capping insulin prices expanding  healthcare access, and cracking down on junk fees—make them more likely to see him in a positive light.

Additionally, a higher share of voters are aware of Walz’s progressive accomplishments, which are broadly appealing, than know about the  only slightly less popular, more moderate components of his record, such as  his middle-of-the-road stances on the deficit and taxes. This provides Walz with an opportunity to highlight lesser-known elements  of his career that appeal to wide swaths of the electorate. His bipartisan work on behalf of veterans in the House also provides an area to introduce his record to voters in a compelling way.  

Our polling shows that Walz is currently the most popular member of either presidential ticket. Voters frequently associate him with the words “veteran” “teacher” “experienced” and “friendly.” While voters see him as liberal on most issues, crucially, voters perceive him as more moderate than JD Vance. 

Finally, when it comes to responding to GOP attacks on Walz’s military service and record as governor, the poll found that the most effective responses are ones that include pivots to attacking Republicans on healthcare, Social Security, and taxes.   

In short, Walz is popular with voters, viewed in favorable terms, and has ample opportunity to further boost his image—and, in turn, the top of Democratic ticket—by highlighting his appealing record from his years in elected office. 

Voters Like Walz’s Free School Lunch, Healthcare Expansion, Insulin Price Cap, and Anti-Junk Fee Legislation

The parts of Walz’s record that are most appealing to voters include capping the price of insulin at $35, providing free school lunches, expanding access to healthcare, and cracking down on junk fees. 

54% of voters—including 53% of independents—say the law that capped the price of insulin at $35 for all Minnesotans, regardless of whether or not they had insurance, makes them view Walz more favorably. Only 8% say this decision makes them view him less favorably. 

53% of voters—including 50% of independents, 44% of 2020 nonvoters, and even 27% of Republicans—say Walz signing a law to make school lunches free for all public school students in Minnesota causes them to view the vice presidential nominee more favorably, compared to just 8% of voters that say they view him less favorably as a consequence of him doing so. 

Walz expanding access to affordable healthcare through initiatives like a public option gives him a boost with 47% of voters—including 46% of independents and 54% of Latinos—and cracking down on junk fees by requiring companies to disclose mandatory fees in product advertising gives him a lift with 45% of voters (including 45% of independents, 51% of Black voters, and 22% of Republicans) and a decline in favorability with just 8% of voters.

Notably, Walz’s record on fiscal policy also polls well, with the $100 million middle-class tax cut he passed as Governor boosting him with 43% of voters—including 42% of independents and 45% of seniors—while his support for deficit reduction while in Congress improves his favorability with 42% of voters, including 51% of Black voters and 44% of Latinos.

The least known parts of Walz’s record are that he supported the Keystone XL natural gas pipeline (13% have heard), signed the country’s most comprehensive “Right to Repair” law (15% heard of, improves favorability with 36% of voters), voted to hold then-Attorney General Eric Holder in contempt of Congress (16% heard of, increases favorability with 37%), supported $4 trillion in deficit reduction as a congressman (16% heard of, boosts favorability with 42%), and signed a $100 million tax cut as governor (17% heard of, raises favorability with 43%). Voter sentiment on deficit reduction and supporting a middle class tax cut—which both stand at the bottom of the pack in voters’ awareness but are highly appealing—shows that Walz has room to improve his already high popularity by calling attention to appealing but less recognized parts of his record. 

What’s more, three of the top four most popular components of Walz’s record are known to only relatively small shares of voters. For example, only 23% of voters are aware of his approval of legislation to crack down on junk fees (24% of voters aged 18-44, 22% of women, 23% of men, 29% of Latino voters, but just 17% of independents and 19% of 2020 nonvoters). 32% know he capped the price of insulin (23% of independents, 39% of voters 65+); a similar share, 31%, have heard that he expanded access to affordable healthcare through initiatives such as a public option, which allowed people the choice to buy into the MinnesotaCare system (20% of independents, 33% of men and voters aged 45-64, 38% of Latinos). Making school lunches free is the only one of Walz’s most popular accomplishments surveyed that more than 40% of voters have heard about (35% of independents, 52% of voters 65+, 47% of Latinos). All of these present Walz with an opportunity to further heighten his standing by calling attention to broadly appealing, progressive parts of his record, along with select more moderate fiscal stances.    

While nothing from Walz’s career that Blueprint surveyed is particularly repellent to voters, elements  of Walz’s record like banning noncompete agreements (32% boost in favorability, 56% no difference, 7% less favorable), having an A+ record from the NRA when he severed as a congressman in a purple district (29% more favorable, 57% no difference, 14% less favorable), supporting the Keystone XL natural gas pipeline (31% more favorable, 53% no difference, 16% less favorable), and supporting refugee resettlements (30% more favorable, 47% no difference, and 23% less favorable) don’t move the needle in the right direction as much.  When appealing to moderates, highlighting Walz’s bipartisan record is more persuasive than highlighting issues like his NRA record, which has increasingly soured its reputation among such voters.

Voters Know Walz is a Veteran, Minnesota Governor; Like his Positions on Social Security and Medicare; and Think He’s a Liberal

Overall, Walz is the most popular candidate in the race; 44% of voters have a favorable opinion of him, while 34% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Walz’s +10 net favorability rating is higher than Vance’s (35% favorable, 56% unfavorable, or a net of-21). Among independents, Walz’s net favorability rating is +5, and among 2020 nonvoters it is +11—making him a persuasive representative of the Democratic ticket to up-for-grabs voters. 

For comparison, Blueprint’s first poll on Kamala Harris, conducted in July, found that the vice president had a net favorability rating of +0, with equal shares of respondents (46%) holding favorable and unfavorable views of her.  For Harris, 24% held extremely favorable opinions and 29% held extremely unfavorable opinions, while 3% say they haven’t heard enough to say.

Currently, more voters view Walz as a liberal than see him as moderate. In a word association test, just 16% of voters use the word “moderate” and nearly three times as many voters, 44%, select “liberal.” And when asked where they would place Walz on an ideological scale, 5% of voters say he was somewhat or very conservative, 15% label him as moderate; and 56% categorize him as  liberal. But Walz is seen as more moderate than Vance; and more voters believe Vance is conservative than Walz is liberal. For comparison, in Blueprint’s recent Vance poll, just 9% described Vance’s ideology as moderate, and 65% described him as conservative, including 45% who said he was very conservative.

The issues on which Walz is viewed as most left-wing, as defined by the percent of voters saying he is “far more liberal” than them, are gun rights (34% far more liberal), immigration and border (35%), inflation, (35%),  gun control (35%), and LGBTQ issues (36%). The issues on which he is viewed closest to voters’ views are Social Security and Medicare (48% close to my views), abortion and birth control (46%), crime (43%), and K-12 education (44%). 

Among all voters, the most widely known facts about Walz’s biography is that Walz is the governor of Minnesota (69% had heard of), followed by the fact the he is a veteran (64%), served for 24 years in the Army National Guard and retired before his unit was deployed to Iraq (57%), and is a former public school teacher (54%).

Defining Walz: Combining Biography, Accomplishments, and Policy Positions

As part of this survey, we conducted a “Mad Libs”-style conjoint analysis, testing multiple combinations of statements about Walz. We rotated various biographic facts, past accomplishments, and key issues of focus to see what voters prefer the most and what the most appealing definition of him will be on the campaign trail.

By pulling together the most popular components of his personal background, the most popular political accomplishment, and the most appealing position on issues, the three top statements to define Walz are:

• Tim Walz enlisted in the Army National Guard as a teenager and retired 24 years later. He signed a law that capped the price of insulin at $35 for all Minnesotans, regardless of whether or not they had insurance. He is running on protecting Social Security and Medicare.
• Tim Walz is Governor of Minnesota. He signed a law allowing for free college tuition at Minnesota public colleges and universities for families making less than $80,000 a year. He is running on banning price gouging on groceries and healthcare.
• Tim Walz was a high school history teacher. He was a senior member of the Veterans Affairs committee and has dedicated his career to helping veterans. He is running on protecting a woman’s right to choose.

Walz’s background as a veteran provides the largest boost of any part of his bio tested in the survey. On policy accomplishments, the most appealing ones focused on Walz’s efforts to lower costs as Minnesota governor, his status as a trailblazer for veterans and bipartisan track record in Congress, and support for deficit reduction. On stances on policy, the inclusion of “protecting Social Security and Medicare,” gives  any statement that it was included in a 13% boost. “Banning price gouging on groceries and healthcare” prompts a 11% boost, and “protecting a woman’s right to choose” causes a 7% boost.

The Best Rebuttals to Attacks on Walz Are Pivots to Standard Democratic Talking Points

Now that Walz has been in the spotlight for a few weeks, Republicans have rallied around a set of criticisms of him. For each attack, we tested three rebuttals and asked voters to select the one they found most persuasive. 

The best-testing rebuttal to the “stolen valor” attack on Walz’s military record notes that Walz retired from the National Guard before his unit received deployment orders, and attacks Republicans for  attempting to distract from their plans on Social Security and taxes. This is consistent with our April poll, which found that Trump’s biggest weakness is the same as almost every Republican’s: support for tax cuts to the rich, paid for by policies that benefit working and middle-class Americans. 

Generally, we find the most compelling rebuttals quickly defang the Republican attack, then go on the offensive on issues like healthcare, abortion and middle-class economic issues, where Democrats have the trust advantage over Republicans. 

We also tested quotes from a recent Walz speech to union members, during which he defended his record both in uniform and advocating for soldiers and veterans in Congress; this rebuttal is less compelling than the pivot. The least persuasive rebuttal contrasted Walz’s record of service with Trump’s draft-dodging during the Vietnam war. 

The effectiveness of the rebuttals are scored by combining appeal of the message with voters overall, with independent voters, and with 2020 nonvoters.

When it comes to attacks on Walz’s economic record as governor of Minnesota—specifically on raising taxes and increasing spending—the most effective rebuttal by a significant margin highlights Walz’s accomplishments, such as expanding the state child tax credit, eliminating taxes on Social Security, improving infrastructure, and providing universal free school lunches. The rebuttal closes by noting that Minnesota is one of the top-ranked states for business in the country. 

In close second is a more populist response, casting Walz as a governor who took on the rich and big pharma in order to lower the deficit and costs. The least persuasive rebuttal pivots to Project 2025, and casts Walz as a bipartisan problem-solver.

The best-testing response to charges that Walz let 2020 protests in Minneapolis get out of control paints him as tough on crime before pivoting to a populist message on prescription drugs and Big Pharma.

The second best-testing rebuttal to charges that Walz stood by as protestors rioted and looted in 2020 emphasized Walz’s respect for peaceful protesters and crackdown on rioting, noting that even Donald Trump was happy with the balance that Walz struck, but is now attacking him because he’s his opponent in the election. The worst-testing message is very similar except that it does not mention Trump.

The most convincing rebuttal to criticism of his approach to gender pivots to a broad defense of freedom to make personal choices—in the vein of  “mind your own damn business”—without government interference. Notably, rebuttals touting Walz’s record on providing tampons to girls in public schools (and then pivoting to Medicare) and attempting to flip the script to attacking JD Vance’s views on gender fall relatively flat.

Finally, when it comes to rebutting attacks on his COVID-19 pandemic management, the most compelling response pivots to a defense of Walz’s record expanding health care and lowering costs for medicine, while attacking Trump for attempting to repeal the ACA. A response focused on the facts on Walz’s COVID record is tied for first, while an attack on Trump’s pandemic response comes in last.  

ABOUT THE POLL

This poll of 1,025 voters  was taken on Aug. 15 and Aug. 16.  This survey was weighted to education, gender, race, survey engagement, and 2020 election results; it was conducted in English, and had a margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points. Full toplines are available here; full crosstabs are available upon request.

PRESS CONTACTS

Alyssa Cass
alyssa@slingshotstrat.com
347-992-5006

Evan Roth Smith
evan@slingshotstrat.com
646-240-0096

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