September 9, 2024

Americans all over the country are gearing up to watch the first debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. But of all the people tuning in on Tuesday night, the most powerful will be the voters of Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina—the swing states that will ultimately decide this election. 

With that in mind, Blueprint today released a new poll of voters in these battleground states. Our polling finds Harris edging out Trump on favorability and ideological alignment—particularly among independents. It also suggests that she has more room to run as a “change” candidate and that she’s closing the gap with Trump on voter perceptions of the candidates’ focus on lowering prices. 

When it comes to the issues that swing state voters prioritize the most (jobs and the economy,  inflation, Social Security and Medicare, healthcare, immigration, corruption, and the border), Harris enjoys her largest trust advantages on healthcare and Social Security and Medicare, while Trump retains clear advantages on immigration and the border. But among swing state independents, Harris has an advantage on every single issue except the border, immigration, and oil and gas exploration—including trust advantages over Trump on inflation and the economy.  

The policy proposals that test best in the swing states are those aimed at bringing down food and prescription costs, cracking down on drug traffickers, and reducing the deficit. 

This explains the Harris campaign promises that swing state voters identify as the most compelling reasons to vote for her, including cutting taxes for middle-class families, cracking down on crime and drug smuggling, going after price gougers and hidden fees, and building new homes to address the housing shortage. Out of Harris’s pledges, swing state voters see her as most likely to deliver on taking on corporate practices that drive up costs for consumers. 

When it comes to messages that Harris can deliver at the debate, our poll indicates that Harris should press her strength on Social Security and Medicare, hone in on her pledges to reduce costs, particularly on food and healthcare, and highlight her record of and commitment to taking on bad corporate actors.

About the poll, Blueprint lead pollster Evan Roth Smith said, “Our latest polling shows that Harris heads into Tuesday’s debate still searching for a durable advantage in the states that will decide the election, but with important openings, she can press. She has erased many of the negative perceptions that plagued Joe Biden, especially on prices and the economy, but swing state voters who are still getting to know her currently see her as more liberal than themselves and less trustworthy than Trump on immigration issues. The most successful campaign promises and messages for Harris play to her growing strength in middle-of-the-road populist economic positioning, embracing middle-class tax cuts, and price gouging laws that put her firmly on the side of working families and against corporate greed or government profligacy. The debate is an important opportunity for Harris to continue to mitigate concerns over her immigration policies while doubling down on pragmatic economic populism that has fired up the Democratic base while also appealing to persuadable swing-state independents.”

Harris Is Viewed More Favorably Than Trump in the Swing States—and Even More So Among Independents

Among swing state voters overall, Harris has a net favorability rating of -2 (49% favorable, 51% unfavorable) compared to Donald Trump’s -6 (46% favorable, 52% unfavorable). But with independent swing state voters, the contrast is more striking: Harris is at -1 (46% favorable, 48% unfavorable), while Trump is at -30 (34% favorable, 63% unfavorable). 

Harris’s net favorability is +70 with Black swing state voters, +27 with Latino swing state voters, +11 with younger (aged 18-44) swing state voters, and +10 with women swing state voters. She’s at -18 with white swing state voters and -16 with male swing state voters. 

Breaking it down by region: in the Rust Belt, Harris is at -2 (48% favorable, 50% unfavorable) favorability and -1 (49% favorable, 50% unfavorable) in the Sun Belt. Trump, meanwhile, is at +1 (50% favorable, 49% unfavorable) in the Rust Belt but -10 (44% favorable, 54% unfavorable) in the Sun Belt. 

40% of swing state voters have a favorable view of JD Vance, and 44% have an unfavorable view, leaving him at -4 net; he sinks to -24 among independents (25% favorable, 49% unfavorable). In the Rust Belt, Vance’s favorability is at -7; it’s -3 in the Sun Belt. 

Tim Walz is the most popular candidate in the swing states, both with voters overall (+2; 43% favorable, 41% unfavorable) and independents (+3; 38% favorable, 35% unfavorable). He’s at +5 in the Rust Belt and +1 in the Sun Belt.

Swing State Voters See Harris and Trump Comparably on “Similar to My Views”—But Harris Does Better with Independents

When asked to place Harris on an ideological scale, 31% of swing state voters overall say her views are similar to theirs; 29% say the same of Trump. For both candidates, the share of swing state independents who see the candidates’ views as similar to their own is lower than with swing state voters overall, but, notably, Harris still does better (26%) than Trump (18%) with them on this measure.

In the Rust Belt, 33% of voters say Harris’s views are similar to theirs, while 29% say so in the Sun Belt; for Trump, it’s 32% in the Rust Belt and 27% in the Sun Belt. 

55% of swing state voters overall say Harris is somewhat or much more liberal than they are, while 51% say Trump is somewhat or much more conservative than they are. 50% of independent swing state voters view Harris as more liberal than they are, while 47% view Trump as more conservative.

Sun Belt voters (57%) are somewhat more likely than Rust Belt voters (55%) to say Harris is more liberal than they are; 53% of Sun Belt voters and 48% of Rust Belt voters view Trump as more conservative than they are. 

On the vice presidential nominees: 32% of swing state voters overall (and 25% of independents) say Walz’s views are similar to theirs, while 44% say he is more liberal than they are (38% among independents). 25% of swing state voters overall (and 12% of independents) say Vance’s views are similar to theirs, with 45% saying he is more conservative than they are (42% among independents).

Harris Has an Opportunity to Breathe Fresh Air into the “Change” Contest

In the most literal sense, Harris’s candidacy already marks a major change, but do swing state voters believe that the Democratic nominee is offering a meaningful (and desired) shift?

When asked whether they think Harris and Trump represent either “a breath of fresh air” or “more of the same,” equal shares (46%) of swing state voters overall say the latter for both, though slightly more swing state voters (43%) identify Harris as “a breath of fresh air” than do Trump (40%). On which candidate represents “the right kind of change,” Harris (47%) and Trump (46%) are effectively tied. 

However, digging deeper into the findings suggests that Harris has more of an opportunity than Trump to make—and further—the case to key demographics for herself as a change candidate. 

Though the share of independent swing state voters who say Harris (45%) and Trump (46%) are “more of the same” echoes that of swing state voters overall, the difference is more pronounced with independents who identify the candidates as “a breath of fresh air”: 38% say so of Harris, while only 28% say so of Trump. And among independent swing state voters, Harris leads Trump on the question of who represents the right kind of change—43% to his 36%. 

Meanwhile, Black (72%) and Latino (58%) swing state voters are particularly likely to call Harris “a breath of fresh air.” And 81% of Black, 65% of Latino, 52% of female, and 51% of younger (ages 18-44) swing state voters say she represents “the right kind of change.” 

Swing State Voters See Harris as More Focused Than Biden on Lowering Prices—and She’s Beating Trump on the Issue Among Independents

Blueprint’s polling has consistently found that prices are far and away voters’ top economic concern, and this survey is no different. When asked what they’d most like to see improved in the economy, 73% of swing state voters select lower prices on goods, gas, and services, while only 12% say higher wages, 9% say lower interest rates on mortgages and credit cards, and 7% say more jobs. 

A key difference between swing state voters and national voters is evident in how they see the Democratic nominee on these issues. In previous polling, the share of voters who identified Biden as most focused on jobs was significantly higher than the share who saw lowering prices as his top priority. Respondents in this poll believe the reverse of Harris: 42% swing state voters say she is most focused on lowering prices, while just 16% say she is most focused on jobs. 

Harris’s significant improvement over Biden on prices puts her neck and neck with Trump with swing state voters on this all-important issue, which 41% see as his chief economic focus (28% say it’s jobs). Further, Harris has a significant advantage with independent swing state voters: 46% say her top economic priority is lowering prices, while only 35% say so of Trump. 

45% of Rust Belt and 40% of Sun Belt voters believe Harris is most focused on lowering prices, compared to 42% and 41% for Trump, respectively.

On Swing State Voters’ High-Priority Issues, Harris Is More Trusted on Healthcare as well as Social Security and Medicare

In our test of swing state voter issue prioritization, the top issues are jobs and the economy (selected 73% of the time), inflation (69%), Social Security and Medicare (67%), healthcare (64%), immigration (59%), corruption (59%), and the border (59%); abortion in the middle of the pack, at 52%. The least prioritized issues are transgender issues (13%), asylum seekers (29%), regulating businesses (31%), Israel and Palestine (34%), and climate change and the environment (37%). 

We asked swing state voters whether they trusted Harris or Trump more to handle this same set of issues. With swing state voters overall, Harris leads most significantly on transgender issues (+13 net trust), climate change and the environment (+12), abortion (+11), education (+8), healthcare (+7), and Social Security and Medicare (+5). Swing state voters trust Trump most on the border (+11), oil and gas exploration (+7), Israel and Palestine (+6), and immigration (+6). Trump also leads on jobs and the economy (+2) and inflation (+2). 

However, independent swing state voters trust Harris more than Trump on every issue we tested, with the exception of the border (-4), immigration (-13), and oil and gas exploration (-4) (and gun rights, where trust nets to 0). On both jobs and the economy and inflation, net trust in Harris is +4. And, compared to swing state voters overall, her advantage over Trump with independents on Social Security and Medicare (+20), healthcare (+19), and corruption (+13) is even stronger.

Winning Swing State Policies: Bringing Down Food and Prescription Costs, Cracking Down on Drug Traffickers, Reducing the Deficit

We presented swing voters with a list of policy proposals and, for each, asked voters whether they supported it and whether they believed it would benefit someone like them. 

The proposals that garnered the highest net support with swing state voters overall are reducing prescription drug prices for seniors (+85), increasing sentences for trafficking fentanyl (+81), increasing prosecution of drug traffickers at the border (+80), capping insulin prices for seniors (+77) and reducing the federal deficit (+77).

The proposals that swing state voters are most likely to say would benefit someone like them are reducing the federal deficit (net +57), passing a law banning companies from charging excessive prices on groceries and authorizing the FTC to impose fines on companies that do (+56), more support for small food businesses so they can lower costs by competing with big companies (+44), reducing prescription drug prices for seniors (+42), and hiring more police officers (+39).  

On a measure combining voter support for a proposal and belief that it would benefit them, the policies that scored the highest are reducing the federal deficit, reducing prescription drug prices for seniors, banning excessive prices on groceries, more support for small food businesses so they can lower costs, and increasing prosecution of drug traffickers.

Harris Campaign Promises that Swing State Voters Find Most Persuasive—and Most Believable

We presented swing state voters with a list of campaign promises that Harris has made and asked which they found to be the most persuasive reasons to vote for her. The promises swing voters overall find most compelling are cutting taxes for middle-class families (chosen 67% of the time), cracking down on crime and the smuggling of drugs like fentanyl (64%), prosecuting companies engaged in price gouging (58%), banning more hidden fees and surprise late charges (52%), and ending America’s housing shortage by building three million new homes and rentals that are affordable for the middle class (50%). 

Swing state independents choose cutting taxes for middle-class families, cracking down on crime drug smuggling, prosecuting price gougers at the same rate as swing state voters overall, and banning hidden fees at the same rate as swing state voters overall. However, they are more compelled than average by the promise to reduce the federal deficit (55%). 

Independent swing state voters (49%) are more likely than swing state voters overall (47%) to find the pledge to restore Roe v. Wade a persuasive reason to vote for Harris, as are Black (55%), women (55%), and younger (ages 18-44) (51%) swing state voters. 

The promise to prosecute price gougers is particularly appealing to Black voters, who chose it 67% of the time—making it the most persuasive reason to vote for Harris among this group. 

Using the same list of promises as for the test described above, we asked swing state voters whether they believed Harris would deliver—whether she would try and succeed, try and fail, or not even try. The promises swing state voters are most likely to believe Harris will succeed at delivering on are: restoring and making permanent the Child Tax Credit (51%), passing a new law expanding voting rights (48%), sending additional Border Patrol agents to the southern border (46%), cutting taxes for middle-class families (46%), banning more hidden fees and surprise late charges (45%), and prosecuting companies engaged in illegal price gouging (45%).

The promises that swing state voters are most likely to say Harris “won’t even try” to achieve are: investing in strengthening the US military (42%), sending additional Border Patrol agents to the southern border, (39%), reducing the deficit (37%), bringing back the bipartisan border security bill and signing it into law (34%), and cracking down on crime and the smuggling of drugs like fentanyl (32%). 

The promises that swing state voters are most likely to believe Harris will attempt but not succeed at are: passing an assault weapons ban (47%), restoring Roe v. Wade (36%), and ending America’s housing shortage (35%). 23% believe she will try but fail to bring back the bipartisan border security bill and sign it into law.

The promises that the lowest share of voters believe Harris will try but fail at are sending additional Border Patrol agents to the southern border and investing in strengthening the US military (15% for each).

Winning Debate Messages for Harris: Reducing Food and Healthcare Prices, Protecting Social Security and Medicare, Taking on Corporations

For this poll, we conducted two message tests. The first contained messages based on rhetoric Harris has used on the campaign trail. In the second, we showed respondents a Harris message paired with a Trump response based on his Truth Social posts and speeches, asking them to select the exchanges that provided the strongest reason to vote for Harris. This “point-counterpoint” format provides a sense of the debate scenarios where Harris would be strongest.  

In the first test, common themes that emerge from the most popular messages include the cost of living and efforts to reduce prices, particularly on groceries. These messages highlight Harris’s proposals to bring down the price of food by taking on price gouging and other activities by big businesses that could increase grocery costs; the action she’s taken to strengthen Social Security and Medicare; and her career-long record of and commitment to successfully going after corporations that take advantage of ordinary people. 

The messages that tested best with swing state voters overall are below.

Notably, while a reproductive rights-focused message ranks in the middle of the pack with swing state voters overall (49%) and with all other demographic groups, it is the sixth-most-popular message among Black swing state voters, who choose it 58% of the time: 

• “In a moment when our most fundamental freedoms are under attack, Kamala Harris won’t let our basic rights be rolled back any longer. Kamala Harris is a tireless fighter for reproductive freedom: she believes in a woman’s right to make decisions about her own body without the government telling her what to do. She’s fighting back against extreme abortion bans and attacks on birth control and IVF. If she’s elected president, she’ll pass a national law to restore the protections of Roe v. Wade and secure the freedom of every woman and family to choose what’s best for them and their future.” 

Meanwhile, the below message—focused on working hard but struggling to get by and the need to ensure living wage for all—performs better than average (53%) with Black (58%), female (57%), younger (ages 18-44) (55%), and Latino (55%) swing state voters. It is the third and fourth-most-frequently chosen message by both Black and women swing state voters. 

• “Imagine working hard every day but still struggling to pay your bills and support your family. Kamala Harris wants to raise the minimum wage to $15 because she believes that if you work, you should be able to live comfortably. It is unacceptable that millions of people in this country work over 40 hours a week—sometimes significantly more—and still can’t afford basic living expenses. Everyone deserves a living wage. Kamala Harris cares about fairness and wants everyone to have a chance at the American Dream. Support her for a stronger economy and a brighter future for all.”

In the point-counterpoint test, the exchanges that swing state voters identified as making the most persuasive case for Harris focused on allowing Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices, protecting Social Security and Medicare, healthcare policy aimed at protections for those with pre-existing conditions, abortion rights, and taking on price gougers and other bad corporate actors. 

The best-testing exchanges are below.

ABOUT THE POLL

This poll of 1,086 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin was taken from August 31 to September 2, 2024. This survey was weighted to education, gender, race, survey engagement, and 2020 election results; it was conducted in English, and had a margin of error of ±3.7 percentage points. Full toplines are available here; full crosstabs are available upon request. 

PRESS CONTACTS

Alyssa Cass
alyssa@slingshotstrat.com
347-992-5006

Evan Roth Smith
evan@slingshotstrat.com
646-240-0096

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