Lost in Translation: Swing Voters’ Misperceptions of Harris And Late Turn To Trump

These voters—who remained open to persuasion until the very end—delivered not just a rejection of Harris but what they believed the Democratic Party stands for, absorbing right wing narratives.

November 15, 2024

KEY FINDINGS:KEY FINDINGS

Late Break for Trump: Swing voters broke for Trump 52% versus just 38% for Harris. Nearly half of swing voters who chose Trump made their decision in the final weeks, including 27% in the final days (15% in the last week, 12% on Election Day), suggesting they were genuinely up for grabs. This is substantially later than swing voters who broke for Harris—just 15% of whom decided in the last week or on Election Day.
Misaligned Democratic Brand: In the eyes of swing voters who chose Trump, Democrats were misaligned on their top policy priorities. These voters were more likely to view Democrats as “too focused on identity politics” (67%) and “not doing enough to address crime” (68%). 75% of swing voters who chose Trump said it is accurate that Democrats are “too focused on fighting Trump rather than bringing the country together.”
Perception Gap: Over 80% of swing voters who chose Trump believed Harris held positions she didn’t campaign on in 2024, including supporting taxpayer funding for transgender surgeries for undocumented immigrants (83%), mandatory electric vehicles by 2035 (82%), decriminalizing border crossings (77%), and defunding the police (72%).
Trust Crisis: Only 22% of swing voters who broke for Trump believed Harris prioritized “Americans like me” versus party activists—a stark contrast with the 80% who said Trump prioritizes “Americans like me” over party activists.

In the final days of the 2024 presidential election, one in four swing voters were still making up their minds. When they finally chose, they broke decisively for Donald Trump—delivering a deeply sobering message about Democratic Party misalignment on the high-salience issues of immigration and the economy and laying bare a Democratic brand problem.

These voters absorbed right-wing attacks against the Democratic Party and delivered a verdict driven by kitchen-table economics and immigration concerns while rejecting what they perceived as Democratic cultural priorities. As our research has shown, these decisive swing voters ranked the Democratic Party’s perceived focus on cultural issues over middle-class concerns as their top criticism (+28)—even above inflation (+24) and immigration (+23).

Vice President Harris couldn’t escape what voters think the Democratic Party represents—believing that the party holds extreme positions on the broad swath of issues and would enforce them through policy. Over 80% of these decisive swing voters believed Harris held positions she did not campaign on in 2024, including supporting taxpayer funding for transgender surgeries for undocumented immigrants (83%), mandatory electric vehicles by 2035 (82%), decriminalizing border crossings (77%), and defunding the police (72%).

Perhaps most painfully, only 22% of swing voters who chose Trump believed Harris prioritizes “Americans like me” versus party activists—a stark contrast with the 80% who said Trump prioritizes “Americans like me” over party activists. Furthermore, 75% of swing voters who broke for Trump say it is either “extremely accurate” or “very accurate” that Democrats are “too focused on fighting Trump rather than bringing the country together.”

Despite Harris’s disciplined campaign messaging and positioning in speeches and paid advertising, Republicans created and exploited disconnects between Harris’s stated views and the preferences of the electorate, building narratives around her that resonated organically with swing voters. The decision points of these voters—who remained open to persuasion until the very end—reveal not just a rejection of Harris but what they believed the Democratic Party stands for.

The Making and Breaking of a Trump Swing Voter

The data tells an intriguing story about how these voters broke late and broke hard. Only 37% of swing voters who chose Trump knew their choice “all along,” significantly below the 68% of all voters who said the same about their decision timing. 47% of these Trump-breaking swing voters decided in the final weeks. A remarkable 27% of swing voters who chose Trump decided in the final days (15% in the last week, 12% on Election Day).

This late-breaking pattern suggests these voters were persuadable but ultimately broke toward Trump—and further data shows they were not merely reluctant Trump voters. 73% say they voted for Trump rather than against Harris.

The Democratic Brand Problem

Swing voters who broke for Trump express profound skepticism about what they perceive to be Democratic Party priorities. A striking 80% believe Trump prioritizes “Americans like me” compared to 22% who say the same about Harris. This fundamental trust gap extends across multiple high-salience issues.

The data shows the swing voters who ultimately chose Trump see Democrats as misaligned with their values across three key areas. All percentages below represent the sum of those who rated each critique as “extremely” or “very” accurate.

Immigration & Border Security

The consistency and intensity of border-related critiques from swing voters who chose Trump suggest this issue serves as a gateway for broader skepticism about Democratic priorities.

Percentage of swing voters who chose Trump characterizing the critique as “extremely accurate” or “very accurate”:

77% – Democrats aren’t tough enough on the border crisis
73% – Democrats “support immigrants more than American citizens”
72% – Democrats “don’t care about securing the border”

Economic Management

Swing voters who chose Trump delivered a comprehensive economic critique on both policy and priorities: 73% believed Democrats “don’t know how to manage the economy,” and 59% saw the party as unwilling to tackle inflation.

Percentage of swing voters who chose Trump characterizing the critique as “extremely accurate” or “very accurate”:

73% – Democrats “don’t know how to manage the economy”
65% – Democrats support “out of control deficit spending”
59% – Democrats are unwilling to reduce inflation
54% – Democrats “aren’t willing to stand up for working people”

Cultural & Identity Issues

Republicans’ cultural critiques stuck to Harris and to the national Democratic brand, tapping into existing anxiety about Democratic Party priorities. For example, these voters were more likely to view Democrats as “too focused on identity politics” (67%) and “not doing enough to address crime” (68%).

Percentage of swing voters who chose Trump characterizing the critique as “extremely accurate” or “very accurate”:

75% – Democrats “are too focused on fighting Trump rather than bringing the country together”
67% – Democrats “are too focused on identity politics”
64% – Democrats “divide the country instead of uniting it”
63% – Democrats “have extreme ideas about race and gender”
62% – Democrats “don’t share the values that make America special”

Policy Perception Gaps

The Republicans successfully created and exploited large disconnects between Harris’s 2024 policy positions and what swing voters believed about her views.

These misalignments persisted despite the Harris campaign’s messaging, showing how sweepingly the Republican narrative on Harris’s positions took hold and shaped the lens of these voters. This, in turn, created the impression for too many swing voters that Democrats hold the most extreme possible version of left-of-center positions and would enforce them through policy.

For instance, swing voters who chose Trump in the end believe Harris supports:

Using taxpayer dollars for transgender surgeries for undocumented immigrants (83%)
Requiring all cars to be electric by 2035 (82%)
Decriminalizing border crossings (77%)
Banning fracking (74%)
Defunding the police (72%)

ABOUT THE POLL

Blueprint surveyed 3,262 national and swing state 2024 voters fielded over web panels on Nov. 6 and Nov. 7 and weighted to education, age, gender, race, and 2020/2024 election results. The margin of error is +/- 2.1.

Full topline available here.

Definition of swing voters: Our definition of swing voters includes those who are undecided in the presidential race, have changed their voting preference since 2020 (voting Democrat in one election and Republican in the other), or are independents who either indicate they split their votes between Democrats and Republicans, or who hold either favorable or unfavorable views of both Trump and Harris. We collected 3,623 total voters in our targeted swing states and 757 swing voters.

PRESS CONTACTS

Alyssa Cass
alyssa@slingshotstrat.com
347-992-5006

Evan Roth Smith
evan@slingshotstrat.com
646-240-0096