No Country for Young Men: 18-29-Year-Old Male Voters Pessimistic About America, Have Conventional Political Priorities, Love Obama

“Our new polling shows that young men are less optimistic about the country and political system but still have fairly conventional priorities,” said Blueprint’s lead pollster Evan Roth Smith.

October 22, 2024

KEY FINDINGS

Young male voters are more pessimistic and nihilistic about America and its political system than older male voters.
Young male voters’ top priorities are conventional issues such as inflation, jobs, the economy, corruption, crime, and healthcare, while Vice President Kamala Harris’s vulnerabilities with this group are on areas that voters tend to trust Democrats less on, like inflation, immigration, and national security.
College-educated men are more likely than those without college degrees to have a favorable opinion of Harris and to care about election integrity, climate change, energy, and national security. In contrast, non-college-educated men are more likely to like former President Donald Trump, to prioritize guns, to be concerned about men and boys falling behind in education and jobs, as well as corruption and the opioid crisis.
Non-college men are particularly likely to prioritize inflation. This helps explain Democratic weakness with the group and points to the need for effective messaging on the issue.
Young male voters place a higher priority on wages and employment issues and are less concerned about globalization and the decline of American manufacturing than older male voters are.
Barack Obama is very popular among the youngest male voters, showing the former president could be an effective Harris surrogate with them during the campaign’s final stretch.

Blueprint’s latest poll examines young men’s political views and priorities and how they differ from those of older male voters. The survey shows that young male voters, ages 18-29, are more likely than their older counterparts to be pessimistic about America, its political system, and its role in the world and to express nihilistic sentiments about politics—suggesting a change-focused message that signals a break with the status quo is persuasive to this demographic. Men’s top priorities are not the culture war or crypto but conventional issues like inflation, the economy, and crime, as our previous polling has shown. Traditional topics like immigration, national security, and business regulations are Harris’s top vulnerabilities with this cohort. Additionally, the poll shows that young male voters are more likely than older male voters to care about employment-related economic issues and are less likely to lament globalization, automation, and the decline of American manufacturing.

When it comes to elected officials, Obama is by far the most popular politician among the youngest male voters—suggesting the 44th president is a Harris surrogate who is particularly well-positioned to speak to young voters compellingly in the final stretch of the campaign.

The survey also found divides between the priorities of younger male voters (under 45 years old) with and without college degrees. A higher share of college-educated young male voters view Harris favorably, and a higher share of non-college-educated young male voters view Trump favorably. On their priorities, college-educated voters are more likely to care about election integrity, climate change, and energy, while non-college voters are more likely to care about guns, corruption, and the opioid crisis.

“Our new polling shows that young men are less optimistic about the country and political system but still have fairly conventional priorities,” said Blueprint’s lead pollster Evan Roth Smith. “A message that successfully persuades these voters focuses on their discontent about the status quo and their concerns about the economy, inflation, and immigration—issues that Democrats are vulnerable on among broad swaths of the electorate. And given Barack Obama’s sky-high popularity among this cohort and his comfort delivering a ‘hope and change’ message, young voters are primed for the former president to deliver pro-Harris arguments.”

Young Men are More Pessimistic About America and The Political System Than Older Male Voters

Young men are significantly more pessimistic about the current state of America, its political system, and its impact on the rest of the world—a dynamic our May poll of young voters explored. For example, a significantly lower share of men ages 19-29 agree with statements like “I am proud to be an American” than older male voters; just 58% of them agree with the statement, while 16% disagree, and 26% neither agree nor disagree—a +42 net agreement. For comparison, 77% of voters ages 30 to 49 agree with the statement, while 8% disagree. And 82% of voters 50 and over agree, while 6% disagree—a +77 net agreement among men over 50, amounting to a whopping 35-point gap between the youngest men and men over 50 on being proud to be an American.

The same age divide emerges on whether America is a force for good in the world. The sentiment that the country is a force for good in the world has +32 net agreement among male voters under 30, +46 among male voters ages 30 to 49, and +66 among voters 50 and over—a 34-point gap between the youngest male voters and oldest male voters. Similarly, 21% of younger men believe America is the single greatest country in the world, compared to 45% of men 50 and over—a 44% agreement gap. On the statement “I would rather be born in America than any other country in the world,” 81% of the oldest male voters agree, and just 6% disagree (+75), while 59% of the youngest male voters agree and 12% disagree (+47)—a 28-point gap. On the statement, “America is more of the ‘bad guy’ than the good guy’ in the world right now,” 38% of young men agree, while 27% disagree (+11 net support). But just 26% of men 50 and over agree, and double that share, 52% disagree (-26 net support). This 37-point gap between younger and older men shows that a message about the need for America’s global leadership would not be as compelling to young men as it may be to older voters.

The same dynamic is evident in sentiments about the domestic political system and elected officials. For example, on the statement “the American political system doesn’t work for people like me, ”44% of the youngest age bracket agree, and 21% disagree (+23 agree), while for the oldest age demographic, 32% agree and 37% disagree (net -5 agree)—a 28-point gap between the youngest and oldest age groups. And on the statement, “nothing any politician has done has ever helped me,” 35% of young voters agree while 34% disagree (+1 agree). But half, 50%, of voters 50 and over disagree, while just 26% agree (-24 agree)—a 25-point gap. Along similar lines, 68% of young voters agree that “nearly all politicians are corrupt and make money from their political power,” compared to 57% among older respondents.

Not only do younger voters have a worse view of America and its political system, they are also more nihilistic about elections. A plurality of voters, 39%, 18 to 29 agree with the statement “It doesn’t matter who wins elections, nothing changes,” while 36% disagree (+3 agree). In contrast, just 30% of 50+ voters agree with this sentiment, and 50% disagree (-20 agree)—a 23-point gap.

Young Voters’ Top Priorities Are Conventional, and Harris’ Vulnerabilities Are on Normal Issues

As the data demonstrated in our September poll of male voters, young voters’ top concerns are conventional issues, rather than culture war issues or cryptocurrency. Indeed, the most important issues to young men are inflation (selected 74% of the time, +24 relative to the average issue), jobs (+22), the economy (+19), corruption (+14), crime (+13), and healthcare (+13). On an absolute basis, the least prioritized issues for young men are crypto (-35 relative to average), transgender issues (-26), cancel culture (-23), and Israel and Palestine (-17).

On a relative basis compared to older men, the issues ranked as lowest priorities by young men are election integrity (-22 less than older men), Social Security (-15), Israel and Palestine (-15), and national security (-10). (This is not because young men don’t prioritize Social Security—it has +10 relative importance; instead, it is because older men prioritize Social Security so highly). On a relative basis compared to older men, young men rate jobs (+28), men and boys falling behind in education and jobs (+17), climate change (+14), transgender issues (+11), education (+9), the specific issues faced by men and boys (+5) and cryptocurrency (+4). Cryptocurrency is a higher priority to the youngest men, relative to older men.

Compared to Trump, Harris is trusted by a higher share of young men on abortion (+18), education (+11), transgender issues (+11), healthcare (+10), Social Security and Medicare (+9), and climate change and the environment (+9). On the flipside, Harris is trusted by the lowest share of young men on immigration (-19), inflation (-14), national security and foreign policy (-12), the economy (-11), crime (-10), and business regulations (-10).

More Young Voters Have Employment-Related Economic Priorities and Concerns Than Older Men

On economic issues, the youngest voters have different views and priorities than their older counterparts. While our polling has consistently shown the voters are more concerned about prices than they are about jobs and wages, this new data demonstrates that a high share of young male voters prioritize wages, and significantly fewer are focused on prices than older male voters. Specifically, on the topic of what they would most likely to see improved on the economy, 44% of younger men say lower prices on goods, gas, and services, while 77% of men in the oldest age bracket say the same—a 33% difference. While prices are the chief concern for the plurality of voters ages 18 to 29, significantly more of them, 28%, say higher wages than the oldest men, 9% of whom say wages are their chief economic concern. A similar dynamic emerges on prioritizing creating more jobs, which is the highest economic priority for 18% of young voters and just 7% of men over 50.

While their assessments of the candidates on the economy are similar, fault lines emerge on views on various developments in recent decades. For example, a large share of young male voters are ambivalent about the decline of American manufacturing: 42% believe it has been a neutral development, 43% a bad development, and 16% a good one. In contrast, a decisive 78% majority of the oldest male voters believe it was a bad development, 16% neutral, and just 6% good. The two demographics’ opinion amounts to a 35-point gap between the youngest and oldest men on the issue of the decline of American manufacturing over the last 50 years.

Regarding economic concerns that Harris is focused on, a plurality of young men say she is most focused on lower prices of goods, gas, and services (29%). 26% think more jobs, 26% think higher wages, and 19% lower interest rates on mortgages and credit cards. Among older male voters, a significantly higher share, 42%, say Harris’s primary focus is on lower prices on goods, gas, and services; a similar share, 28%, say higher wages, 18% on more jobs; and slightly lower share, 12%, say lower interest rates on mortgages and credit cards.

When it comes to which economic concerns Trump is focused on, 31% of young voters think he is most focused on lower prices, 26% on more jobs, 22% on lower interest rates on mortgages and credit cards, and 20% on higher wages. For the oldest age bracket, 11% more older male voters than young men, or 42%, believe the former president is most focused on prices, 23% on more jobs, 21% on lower interest rates on mortgages and credit cards, and 15% on higher wages.

On the economy, both older and younger men trust Trump more than Harris—as previously conducted Blueprint polling has shown—with little differences between the age brackets. 51% of men in the youngest age bracket, 54% of the 30 to 40-year-olds, and 52% of the oldest age bracket trust Trump more, while 41% of male voters 18 to 29, 39% of men 30 through 49, and 43% of male voters 50 and over trust Harris more on the matter.

Young men are also significantly warmer on globalization than older men. 32% think it’s been a good development, and just 12% say it’s been bad (56%, the plurality, are neutral on it). While globalization is decidedly above water among young men, with a +20 “good development” margin, older male voters are split down the middle; 26% of men 50 and over say it’s been a good development, and 27% say it’s been a bad thing—creating a 21-point divide between the youngest and oldest crops of male voters on the issue. Similarly, young male voters are less worried about automation and robots in the labor force; the development is -8 among younger male voters but -15 among older male voters.

Politician Favorability: Young Men Really Like Barack Obama

In the campaign’s final stretch, former President Barack Obama might be Democrats’ not-so-secret weapon to reach young men. Despite this demographic cohort being too young to have been eligible to vote for him, Obama is by far the most popular politician among the youngest group of male voters, who also like him the most out of all age brackets. 60% of men ages 18-29 have a favorable opinion of Obama, while just 28% have an unfavorable opinion of him. The youngest male age bracket’s +38 favorability is 14 points higher than the 30 to 49 age bracket, who give him a +24 net favorability, and 34 points higher than the +4 net favorability among male voters over 50.

Asked their assessment of the election of Obama, a plurality, 43%, of the youngest male voters say it was a positive development, while just 16% regard it as a negative development (+27 positive development). Male voters in the 30 to 49 age range, many of whom had the opportunity to cast a vote for Obama, rate his election as a positive development by +18 margin. Men over 50, meanwhile, are about evenly split; 41% believe Obama’s election was a positive development, while 38% think it was a bad development (+3).

While Harris is above water among young male voters, fewer of them like her than Obama. The vice president has a narrowly positive favorability rating among young men (+4), but a slightly negative favorability among male voters 30 to 49 (-2) and the oldest men (-5). Compared to Harris, Trump is viewed just two points more favorably than Harris among young men (+6 among young men), but has a much higher favorability rating among 30-49-year-old men (+9) and weaker one among the oldest men (-7). Joe Biden has the worst favorability rating across all male education and age demographics, and his ratings are worse among the youngest men (-23), followed by 30 to 49 year olds (-14), and men over 50 (-15).

Exploring Divides Among College-Educated and Non-College-Educated Men

The survey also examined the differences between younger male voters with and without college degrees. (For educational divides, we looked at men under 45 without college degrees and men under 45 with them, to provide a larger sample size.) The education divide we see across a range of demographics also applies to young men.

Among young men, there is a stark education divide in politician favorability; 61% of college-educated young male voters view Harris favorably and 39% unfavorably—a +22 net favorability rating. But among men under 45 without college degrees, her net favorability is -2—creating a 24-point gap between the two groups. There’s a slightly smaller education gap on Trump. The former president is narrowly unfavorable among college-educated men (-2), but has net favorability among non-college-educated young men (+8).

While non-college-educated men under 45 are not fond of the current Democratic nominee, Obama is the most popular politician with this demographic. 63% of non-college-educated men view Obama favorably and 30% unfavorably. Obama’s +33 net favorability among young men without college degrees is 25 points higher than Trump’s. Obama is, predictably, even more popular among college-educated young men; 73% of men under 45 with college degrees view Obama favorably, and 26% view him unfavorably (+47).

The widest gap between how non-college graduates and college graduates view politicians is on the current president; Joe Biden has +3 favorability among college-educated young men but a yawning -29 favorability among non-college young men.

Issue Trust

Issue Importance

BONUS FINDINGS

67% of men—including 84% of men over 50 but just 54% of men 18 to 29—are aware of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement of Trump. 25% of men say RFK’s stamp of approval of Trump makes them more likely to vote for the Republican presidential nominee. Nearly double that share, 45%, say it will have no impact, and 23% say the endorsement makes them less likely to vote for Trump.
70% of male voters, but just 61% of the youngest of them, know about Elon Musk’s endorsement of Trump; 24% of men say his endorsement makes them more likely to support Trump. Slightly more, 28% say it makes them less likely to support the former president, and 45% say it has no impact on who they support.
Just 27% of men are aware of Joe Rogan’s claim that Kamala Harris won the debate against Trump, including 28% of young male voters.

ABOUT THE POLL

Blueprint surveyed 1,348 male registered voters nationally, including an oversample of 611 young male voters (18-29). It was conducted from Oct. 9 to Oct. 13. This survey was weighted to education, gender, race, survey engagement, and 2020 election results; it was conducted in English, and had a margin of error of ±2.2 percentage points. Full toplines are available here; full crosstabs are available upon request.

PRESS CONTACTS

Alyssa Cass
alyssa@slingshotstrat.com
347-992-5006

Evan Roth Smith
evan@slingshotstrat.com
646-240-0096