Felony Counts? How Trump’s Guilty Verdict Shakes Up The 2024 Election

While, overall, an anti-Trump message focused on his conviction is more likely to persuade voters than one focused on his efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act, highlighting the policy stakes of the election is as effective—or even more effective—with independents and low-propensity voters.

Dissecting Biden Defectors and Haley Supporters

Our memo looks at Americans who voted for President Biden in 2020 but plan to vote for Donald Trump in 2024—a group we refer to as “defectors”—and the now-up-for-grabs Nikki Haley voters. This memo takes a close look at these two segments of the electorate, which could be key to President Biden staying in the White House.

Memo: Flash poll on circus Mayorkas

If you only read one thing…

When voters are presented with a generic ballot, Democrats lead by 3 points. But when presented with a Democrat who supports the bipartisan border security bill versus a Republican who supports impeaching Mayorkas, the Democrat leads by 13 points.